Breaking even in a lopsided market: how publishers try to find certainty in an unpredictable industry

As Remedy look to control their corporate narrative, how are their peers faring?

If, by some miracle, you a long-tenured reader of this relatively recent newsletter, you would know I harbour great affection for Remedy Entertainment. As I am currently living abroad, resigned to a valiant Switch Lite with a surprisingly robust battery life, my meagre minutes of play come at the end of the day: incense burning, tea brewing, an occasionally inscrutable port of Alan Wake Remastered in my palms. Despite its retro resolution of 396p - a fuzzy standard yet to be bested this generation - I am enjoying my evenings with its episodic endeavours; Wake’s maniacal monologues and colourful cast of characters compensate for its critical compromises.

How Alan Wake Remastered appears on the Switch versus an artist’s representation of how Alan Wake II would look.

Thus, whenever the studio revises its financial prospects, I tend to write a report on its revelations. Their Capital Markets Day of 2024 was of great candor, illuminating the difficulties of asserting oneself in a competitive commercial marketplace. The ongoing saga of Alan Wake II’s quest to turn a profit received yet another update: its sales to date reached a sturdy 1.8 million, though a recent parallel in Farming Simulator 25 hitting its 2 million milestone in one week represented a reminder that some crops are more fertile than others. Evidently, GIANTS Software’s bucolic brand is more appealing to consumers than Remedy’s subsistence farm. Regardless, just as organic markets remain competitive against supermarkets in cultivating a small, yet devoted niche, the industry needs diversity to heighten its creative ceilings.

Aside from reflections upon their releases to date, Remedy began to sketch the shape of success for two of their coming titles - a mid-priced multiplayer romp in FBC: Firebreak, and a premium action-RPG in Control 2. Per their self-publishing model, the former requires three million lifetime sales to receive a 100% return on investment; the latter’s tally is between three to four million. Indeed, Control 2 will settle on the higher end of its sales projection - its predecessor has sold 4.5 million copies to date. Regarding Firebreak, however, its simultaneous debut upon Xbox Games Pass and PlayStation Plus will greatly hinder its commercial prospects on console; Remedy must rely upon the game to break out on Steam in a similar manner to Payday 2’s prime. Conceptually, its principles seem to be in alignment with Left 4 Dead’s emergent, cooperative storytelling, immediately asserting itself ahead of competing horde shooters with live-service mechanics.

“FBC: Firebreak should be easy to get into and quickly understandable, not feel like a second job or that you have to spend an hour setting up your loadouts etc. before you get into a session … It’s a pick-up-and-play experience [about] having fun with your friends when you have the time … this isn’t about logging in every day for some loot or fear of missing out on materials.”

Thomas Puha, Remedy’s Communications Director

From this pitch, one may discern Firebreak to reserve the observed qualities of a breakout multiplayer sensation: Lethal Company’s satirical character, Deep Rock Galactic’s diegetic progression, Killing Floor’s concluding boss battles, and Left 4 Dead’s cinematic flair. Moreover, their aforementioned target of 3 million is the consequence of two considerations: revenue yielded from its licensing to Microsoft and Sony’s services, along with its ostensible retail price of $34.99 to $39.99. Indeed, Helldivers 2 launched to the latter, finding a ravenous audience to compliment, then surpass its console kin - on a scale of 1/4 against 1/20. Thus, in principle, Firebreak will find a community of premium players on PC, certifying its commercial viability. However, as the game is not a persistent proposition in the vein of Helldivers, it may coast upon a wave of initial enthusiasm, before settling into a comfortable niche until Control 2 furthers their fortune. Furthermore, Steam’s seasonal sales will likely drive it to an appealing price point with regularity - bundled with the rest of the RemedyVerse, prospective converts to their canon may find a compilation appealing.

As in celebrity culture and political campaigns, virality is essential to affirming one’s place in the zeitgeist. Manifesting memorable moments, however, is beholden to the whims of fate. For instance, Alan Wake II’s lasting legacy, irrespective of its chilling atmosphere or metatextual curiosities, will be its riotous musical number. With 12 million views to date, it is the most popular piece of Remedy content on YouTube by some measure. That a daring, form-breaking phantasmagoria from a survival-horror title crossed over to this degree indicates an interest in the medium as a frontier of experimentation. As graphical fidelity increasingly appears to have plateaued according to the naked eye, the next evolution in the form is in blurring the boundaries between texts: music, film, and literature. The expediency of rendering on these platforms has allowed for true experimentation on a mainstream scale: from a kinetic fantasia of colour and combat in Returnal to the extraordinary breadth of scripture in Baldur’s Gate 3.

Art direction and colour coordination are as vital to video game storytelling as their resolution or frame rate.

Not to be profoundly cynical on this stage, however we are on the precipice of a collapse in the Triple A space. With a recent slate of live-service failures, it has become evident to major publishers that carving a slice of the market for themselves requires drawing an audience away, rather than capitalising on an emerging appetite. Not only will Bungie’s Marathon need to draw upon Destiny’s demographic, it will have to encourage extraction shooter fans to part with Hunt: Showdown or Escape from Tarkov, while waylaying concerns from casuals who may find the genre too difficult. Payday 3 delivered an inferior experience to its predecessor, failing to iterate upon its core principles. Against a launch hindered by crippling technical woes, its reputation has yet to recover; it was unceremoniously removed from Games Pass a few months ago. Studios cannot rely upon the intervening time between their prominent narrative titles, nor hope to deliver a protracted service that would allow for a consistent stream of revenue.

This is why I remain fascinated by Remedy; a common refrain of mine is that I find them to maintain a healthy diet of fiscal aspiration and creative ambition. They are an exemplar of how a middleweight studio can compete against heavyweight brands: delivering idiosyncratic, yet accessible stories on a reasonable budget. Their productions tide an audience over through their complexity - from Control’s metroidvania flourishes to Max Payne’s hard-boiled bizarreness. Each of their titles is crucial to deciphering their identity, culminating in Alan Wake 2 tying their respective threads into a glorious gordian knot. If Control 2 becomes a full action-RPG in a Soulslike or Final Fantasian vein, I will be seated as I am now, waxing poetic about their latest triumph.